Buy The Dip Or Not? (The Paradox Of Trading Truisms)
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Trading
Interview With Preston Girard
Become The Most Consistent Trader You Can Imagine If you are ready to get the most consistent results you’ve ever experienced, then click the button to learn how to automate your trading. Automate My Trading
Trades That Are Working Now
Become The Most Consistent Trader You Can Imagine If you are ready to get the most consistent results you’ve ever experienced, then click the button to learn how to automate your trading. Automate My Trading
Trading Consistency
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These Trades Are STILL Working (“Out Of Sample”)
In this video, we review the “Out Of Sample” results of the RSI strategy that was introduced several months ago.
Win Rate Confusion
Which would you rather have? 38% win rate or a 68% win rate. Nobody likes to lose. In school we’re taught that getting 38% of your answers right is called “failing”. But what if the 38% probably rate gave you profits 20% more of the time? Check out these charts to see what I mean… …
Forma Financial Strategies Performance Review
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Experience Trading Bliss
Trading is a series of if/then scenarios… If this price is hit, then buy If this level is crossed, then sell Etc… But, if you trade manually, somewhere between “If” and “Then” something happens… A moment of friction. During the simple process of filling out the order ticket, you are given the opportunity to reconsider …
The RSI Indicator: How to Use The Right Way
In this video, we discover how the RSI can help traders navigate the markets profitably. UPDATE: Several months later, we had a follow up to see how this strategy worked in the real world. Watch the follow up here.
This Is What Happens To Traders Who Are Controlled By Their Fears
Read this to learn strategies to overcome and allay the three costly fears every trader and investor faces. Have you wondered why past events in the markets seem to clear and obvious only to feel conflicted and confused when those same opportunities are presented in real time? This is a common issue that traders and …
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The “High Probability” Distraction
When traders are struggling to get results, I often hear a story that goes something like this: I’ve tried a lot of different strategies. They just weren’t right for me. I’m sure they work for other people but I’m still looking for something that will work consistently for me. The desire here is for two …
The win rate distraction and the truth behind consistent returns.
Many traders and investors are desperately hunting for a “high win rate” or “high probability strategies”. I was once very attracted to the notion of winning 80%, 90%, 95% even 99% of trades. But what if your 90% win-rate still left you with losses? It’s not that hard to imagine and many traders and investors …
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Markets Update
The stock market is shacking off a lot of uncertainty indicating no short term reason to expect sideways or bearish price action. We’re at 33% long exposure to long equities (with a normal range of 15% to 50%). Chasing strength in the stock market is a bit risky at this point, but we can turn …
One Powerful Word To Protect Your Investments
I used to be one of those investors on the hunt for the best strategies and the next big “edge” in the market. I wanted to find what was working and then scale it up to huge size for massive profit. But I soon realized that big size also means big risk. So I was …
Outlandish Trading Returns?
How much do you think a great trader makes each year, on average? 20%? 80%? 200%? What if I told you it’s not like that at all? Professional traders and money managers sometimes talk about percentages, but this is not the real game they play. Percentages are just a measuring tool for comparison. You cannot transfer “%” …
Target Volatility Tip
You can use recent historic volatility to help you be more consistently profitable in your trading and investing. This video will show you proof using 20 years of market data. This is a simple tool that you can begin using immediately to take less risk and have more consistent returns. Send me an email with …
Target Volatility Model
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Value Watch: BGS vs. BYND
While Beyond Meat (BYND) continues to dominate much of the Wall Street’s attention, another food stock has come up on our value watch radar. BYND is currently priced at 13 PB (Price to Book Value); which is down from an inflated 40 PB after its IPO. Meanwhile B&G Foods (BGS) is currently priced at a …
This Shows You If High Returns Are Worth The Risk
We all want high returns on our money right? Of course, we do. But how do we measure what is “high” and what is high enough to be worth our time, effort, and risk?Traders and investors seem to get excited about all sorts of levels of profit. Some are excited when a short term CD …
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How to Get More Consistent Results
Easily, the #1 question received from traders is How can I be a more consistent trader? Consistency is the thing on the minds of traders more than anything else about trading. Yeah… even more than profits. Why? Because traders have seen profits. They aren’t unaware of what it’s like to win. They are, however, often …
What Is True Diversification?
I often reference the concept of True Diversification to my clients and fellow traders. Which often brings back questions about the meaning of that term. First we’ll contrast true diversification to traditional diversification, which is simply owning/investing in a lot of different things. True diversification goes beyond “owning” and brings in short selling, income strategies, directional, multiple time frames, multiple strategy types, …
Sticking With The Plan
Do you find deploying a strategy challenging? I do. This may be because I have to accept the strategy as it is today, not the perfect, pristine baby first imagined. These last couple of weeks I have spent working on both SSJ and SSK to get them prepared for release. After trading the SSJ live …
A Week In The Life Of A Portfolio Developer
Many thanks to Bruce Bitner for sharing highlights from his personal trading journal from the past week. I hope you gain insights about what it’s like to explore edges and develop trading strategies. Enjoy!-Andrew Falde I’ve read that sharing your trading journal was a good thing but have resisted…. until now. I will apologize up …
Staying in the Game for the Winning Streak
Have you ever quit a strategy only to see the next trade win? I have. As humans and traders, most of us will feel less satisfaction from a winning trade than we feel dissatisfaction from a similar sized loss. This is the well discussed concept of loss aversion, also known as Prospect Theory, introduced by …
Predictions
This is one of my favorite graphics — showing how quickly yesterday’s predictions are forgotten while attention shifts to the next big, bold, and exciting prediction. I have no predictions for you. It’s entirely possible to navigate the market without trying to predict — or trying to predict which experts are going to be right. …
Three Elements For A Great Trading Plan
What’s your plan for trading in 2019? I’ve never met a trader who wanted to repeat what they did the previous year — whether they were tremendously profitable or had a terrible year. Traders want to grow — to move from one stage of performance to the next. Improvement in trading has three major components: …
Sidelines in Bear Market
When you pull up a long-term chart of the S&P 500 (SPX) going back to the 1960s, it may not look like this one. What we have here is a log scale chart. This is a simple way to visually remove the effect of compounded growth and keep all the movement within a visually normal …
Which Options Pricing Model Is Best?
A lot happens to options from the time they are listed until they expire. The factors that affect the value of an option prior to expiration include the following: Implied Volatility: Changes in the expected movement during the term of the option will impact the value of the option Time value: How much time goes …